Meteum Blog How Meteum Uses Machine Learning to Create Seasonal Forecasts

How Meteum Uses Machine Learning to Create Seasonal Forecasts

Ilya Drigo

Lead Meteorologist

February 16, 2023

While most services provide weather data for the next 10-14 days, operational planning in a variety of industries requires insights into weather patterns beyond this limit — for the next few months. For instance, agricultural companies and cooperatives need to know when seeding can be started and what potential risks they may face during the growing season. Retailers wish to plan the inventory efficiently and avoid overstocking or running out of stock for their seasonal offers. Energy companies need to model the potential demand to adjust the supply. And so on.

The use of historical weather data, such as five- to ten-year averages, is becoming a less reliable choice due to climate change and increased weather variability. That is why we decided to apply our machine learning capabilities to offer actionable insights for weather-sensitive operations and business scenarios a few months in advance.

Why Seasonal Forecasts Are a Game-Changer for Different Industries?

Meteum's seasonal forecasts offer accurate and valuable insights for a range of use cases. Here's what our seasonal forecasts can predict:

15+ weather parameters, including anomalies such as sudden temperature drops or unseasonably warm or cold weather
The probability of specific values or anomalies occurring

We also provide data segmented into periods of your choosing:

Seasonal (typically 3-month periods)
Monthly
Weekly

Monthly and seasonal data offer a high-level overview of major trends and risks and help to understand the overall weather impact for the upcoming season. Weekly data can be used to plan windows for specific operations or to prepare for weather-related events.

Meteum technology of seasonal forecasting predicts over 15 most critical parameters, such as temperature, precipitation, wind direction and speed, cloud cover, and others. We’re also planning to add snow cover and solar radiation to the list in the near future. This data-rich seasonal forecasting provides a competitive advantage for businesses in a variety of industries:

Agronomists and farmers can use seasonal forecasts to determine the best time for seeding and harvesting, as well as to prepare for dry or cold seasons.
Hypermarkets and DIY stores use these insights to pre-order and supply seasonal products in advance to ensure they meet consumer demand during the upcoming season.
The travel and outdoor activities industries (e.g. beach resorts, hotels, nature parks, theme parks, and ski resorts) can better prepare for the beginning of the high season, and plan its overall length and potential disruptions.
Energy and utility companies can also use seasonal forecasts to plan for energy demand and adjust the supply accordingly.

Contact us to discuss how the seasonal forecast can help your business to do better operations planning and resource allocation, to make smarter decisions in inventory and workforce management.

How Does Meteum's Seasonal Forecasting Work?

At Meteum, we utilize ML ensembles to generate highly accurate forecasts. We collect weather data from eight leading providers, including ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo-France, DWD, CMCC, NCEP, JMA, and ECCC. These providers operate nine ensembles with approximately 500 base models.

Our technology processes the output of these 9 ensembles and 500 base models to generate a unified forecast, i.e. a "super ensemble." We then adjust the projections with both ML and historical data to further refine the accuracy of the seasonal forecast. As a result, the accuracy and reliability of our forecast surpass that of any individual model, to say nothing about the accuracy of the forecasts based on historical average climate values

Case Study: Agricultural Company

One of our customers in the agricultural sector operates farmlands in regions with different weather patterns and climate conditions. Their agronomists required advanced knowledge about potential weather risks, such as sudden temperature drops or rises, for all locations for the whole crop season. This information was crucial to their day-to-day operations, allowing them to effectively plan their seeding, fertilization, crop protection, and harvesting activities.

Meteum provided a comprehensive forecast for 2022 with a monthly resolution and a six-month projection. This information allowed the customer to:

Secure necessary resources at more stable prices and closer to their farms, avoiding unnecessary logistics when there was a surge in the area.
Better predict yield, allowing for more effective resource allocation.
Plan fertilizer use more accurately: less fertilizer is required under better weather conditions.

Overall, Meteum's seasonal forecasts enabled our agricultural client to make informed decisions and improve their operations, resulting in increased efficiency and profitability.

Seasonal forecasts provide valuable information about trends for the most popular weather parameters and the probability of extreme weather events, which are critical for businesses with high impact from seasonal weather factors.

Let’s discuss how to make seasonal forecasting work for your business and how the Meteum technology can provide the most reliable insights tailored to your case. Contact us and book a meeting with your seasonal forecasting expert.Let’s disc