This is Ilya Drigo, Lead Meteorlogist at Meteum. As a business-focused weather intelligence provider, we understand the impact that climate risks can have on a company’s operations, finances, and reputation. Supply chain disruptions, property damage, and changes in consumer demand can all lead to increased costs and liability.
This is where consulting firms have a unique opportunity to step in and provide valuable weather and climate insights to their clients. And when it comes to long-term climate projections, Meteum stands out. With a team of experienced meteorologists and data scientists, we use cutting-edge AI technology and data sources to deliver reliable, actionable, and thorough forecasts.
Read on to learn more about how we can help your clients prepare for and adapt to climate risks.
Understanding Climate Risks With Rich Data
One of the key features of Meteum’s forecasting service is the assessment of climate risks, which is fundamentally based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework. Before delving into the details, let’s establish what this means.
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SPs describe a range of possible futures based on different assumptions about key drivers of change, such as population growth, economic development, and energy use. With this methodology, our clients can understand the potential impact of different climate scenarios on their business or operations and make informed decisions accordingly.
SSPs empower us to produce long-term, day-to-day climate projections up to the year 2100. With Meteum’s advanced forecasting capabilities, businesses can make strategic decisions with confidence, knowing they have the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
But How Is It Done?
We base our projections on impartial, open-source data produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations body. In a nutshell, some of the world’s top climatologists collaborate on a regular basis to run numerical experiments called CMIP. We use the latest version of this climate model ensemble — CMIP6, which takes SSPs into account.
It doesn’t end there: the amount of data we’re talking about is absolutely massive (CMIP6 takes up 25 Pb!). In its raw form, the CMIP ensemble is difficult to work with and needs to be thoroughly refined. Here’s what we’re doing on our end to make this data useful:
- Bias adjustment. The CMIP ensemble has a significant bias that makes it wildly inaccurate. We refine the data and make climate predictions much more precise, similar to how Meteum corrects its 10-day forecasts on the fly. However, the scale is much larger when it comes to long-term predictions.
- Downscaling. As a climate model, CMIP “sees” the Earth as a gigantic grid composed of pieces with a resolution of 100 by 100 km (62 by 62 mi). Using machine learning, Meteum can increase the resolution to much more practical squares as small as 10 by 10 km (6 by 6 mi). For select regions, the resolution can be downscaled to a just 100 by 100 m (330 by 330 ft).
Downscaling: 100km vs. 10kmIn addition to future projections, Meteum also offers historical data dating back to 1935, based on meteorological observations and ERA-5 reanalysis. You can be privy to decades of hourly weather information for any location.
Rich historical data for a given point on the map allows businesses to analyze trends and patterns over time and better understand the long-term impacts of weather and climate change
Accurate and Actionable Reports
Meteum offers two types of reports:
- A standard report that is available quickly (within one day)
- A custom report, tailored to your specific needs
Both are designed to be actionable and easy to understand, with clear recommendations on how to prepare for and respond to potential weather events and changes in climate dynamics.
The system developed by Meteum automatically generates, visualizes, and presents reports in an accessible format.
Example of the report We also provide a full explanation of the methodology used for the report, allowing your team to understand every detail and draw informed conclusions.
Meteum’s reports also include an estimate of uncertainty. No forecast is perfect: the figures contained in our reports are provided in ranges, which helps clients understand the level of confidence in a particular climate report.
Real-Life Cases
To illustrate Meteum’s value to the consulting world, let’s work through some real-world examples.
Case 1: Oil Platforms
We were approached by a consulting firm advising a client on the optimal location for oil rigs. Offshore fossil fuel production is a long-term investment, and many factors play a role in deciding where to locate the equipment.
- The main climatic factors that play a role in the location of oil platforms are wind, waves, and storms. High winds can make it difficult to safely construct and operate the platform, while large waves and storms can damage the platform or make it unsafe for workers.
- Other factors include sea level, tides, ice thickness, and currents. A location with a low sea level, relatively calm tides, and weak currents can make the site more stable.
- In addition, the temperature and salinity of the water can also play a role in site selection, as these factors can affect the behavior of the oil and the integrity of the platform.
Our final report included a detailed forecast of how these factors might evolve over the course of 50 years into the future at a number of locations. The report allowed the client to clearly determine the best locations for oil platforms.
Case 2: Leading Consulting Company
Meteum partnered with one of the most well-renowned consulting providers. The client requested an in-depth analysis of climate conditions at more than 10 different locations.
- Our team picked and analyzed 10 key weather parameters from the CMIP-6 ensemble. Only the most relevant parameters were selected for analysis, such as the likelihood of flash flooding.
- This data was used to create and describe 5 distinct climate projections that provide a comprehensive understanding of potential future conditions.
- We also provided the client with 30 years of historical weather data to establish a baseline and provide context for the projections. The historical data set was chosen with quality, accuracy, and timeliness in mind.
As a result of this project, we delivered a highly detailed hyperlocal climate report tailored to the client’s needs. The consulting firm was able to make well-informed decisions based on the potential climate conditions at the locations of interest.
Businesses often overlook the importance of weather forecasting, but it can have a significant impact on operations and decision-making. Consulting, banking, and insurance firms can incorporate weather forecasting into their services and help their clients make informed decisions.
Take advantage of big data and machine learning with Meteum. Gain a competitive edge in the craft of consulting. Feel free to contact me via the form below if you have any questions!